The Rockefeller Republicans are celebrating today. They have had their revenge, long in coming.

While John McCain was not their first choice (that would be Rudy Giuilani), he’ll do. He supports enough of the moderate wing’s agenda to be satisfactory. McCain’s chief qualification is that conservatives dislike him.

This is shaping up to be an unusual war; each side is championing a candidate who is somewhat difficult to get behind. McCain’s demeanor does not endear him to the elitists who are now resigned to supporting him. Mitt Romney is an unlikely champion of doctrinaire conservatism. But that is how things have shaped up.

The moderates have had a sour taste in their mouths ever since Ronald Reagan brought what they see as uncouth social conservatives into the party. As recently as the 1960s, the GOP was still the party of progressivists; the Democrats still had their southern base of support. That changed with Reagan, whose appeal broadened the party, and made possible the 1994 takeover of Congress.

The older crowd in the GOP were happy to toil in the minority in perpetuity; changing the country was not really high in their list of priorities. So, the ascendency of conservatives in the party has meant a loss of control for the moderates internally. This has left them bitter towards the people they see as having cynically used social conservatism as a means of gaining power. Never mind that politicians might actually believe that social conservatism is true, and is a necessary component of a conservative political philosophy. The moderates, after all, have never been highly ideological; they prefer to react to the trends of the elite.

The Rockefeller wing have long sought to regain what they see as their birthright to control the GOP. This would seem to be their chance to reclaim it. But what will they win?

As the presidential contest stands today, it is basically a two-man race, and the two sides are now squaring off in what looks like a game of chicken. The moderates are determined to force their will on the conservatives, and vice-versa. Mitt Romney would, in other circumstances, look a lot like a consensus candidate. But in this race, he represents the dwindling hopes of conservatives to retain an important role in the Republican Party. Conservatives, sensing their increasing irrelevancy in the party’s direction, are shrugging their shoulders, losing interest and considering sitting out or forming a third party.

Dick Morris, the uncannily inaccurate oracle of Fox News Channel, suggested last night that Florida exit polls show that Republicans are becoming more liberal. The first impulse is to dismiss his analysis, based on his track record. But, he may actually be on to something this time. It is not precisely that Republicans are becoming more liberal, but that the boundaries are moving. Putting aside shenanigans like Florida election officials allowing independents to redeclare as Republican on the spot in order to vote for John McCain, there probably has been some shift in who is a Republican.

All of the GOP elites’ insults to conservatives that have been carried out in recent years, chief among them the failed amnesty plan, have no doubt caused some of the more conservative voters to re-register as independent or third party. At the same time, pro-war liberal and moderate independents may be registering as Republicans. What is emerging are two progressivist parties, separated only by personality and foreign policy.

Where will the conservatives go? The moderates’ efforts may well result in the formation of a third party, which will attract more attention, voters and money than other recent efforts. The Democrats will thus likely win control of Congress and the White House.

And then what will they have won? Exactly what they had.